Design, Construction & Compliance

Building Cost Projections

COST PROJECTIONS BEGINNING FY 2017

The Past Year

NATIONALLY

June 2016. Public construction is down from earlier this year, but is up from this time last year.  Construction employment is rising, only partially due to the time of year as construction starts are increasing as well.  Asphalt and steel prices have gradually increased as the construction season is in full swing.  The rising diesel fuel prices will probably continue and will begin to affect material prices before long.

The Architectural Billings Index is above 51 (any score over 50 indicates building growth) for architectural firms.  This means that architectural firms are seeing an increase in billings over the previous month.

(Above data compiled from AGC)

LOCALLY

With the state budget issues continuing, the volume of state funded construction related work is on the downslide however post-secondary education construction, utilizing private funding, continues to expand with significant work at the University of Kansas, Kansas State University and Wichita State University.  KU’s P3 projects and several large projects at KSU are limiting the availability of sub-contractors in north east Kansas causing these prices to escalate as general contractors have to go farther afield to find qualified sub-contractors.

The Forecast for FY17

With design and construction on the upswing, the problem facing the construction industry is skilled labor and qualified subcontractors.  We are experiencing bid numbers at or slightly above the budgeted amounts as opposed to the lower bidding numbers of recent years.  We expect cost to continue to rise.

Cost Projections

  Yearly Cost Projections
from FY 2016
Monthly Cost Projections
from FY 2016
FY17 4.0% 0.004167 / month (4%/12 months)
FY18 7.0% 0.002917 / month (7%/ 24 months)
FY19 10.0% 0.002778 / month (10%/ 36 months)
FY20 14.0% 0.002917 / month (14%/ 48 months)
FY21 17.0% 0.002833 / month (17%/ 60 months)
These projections were compiled from multiple sources including AGC of America, US Bureau of Labor Statistics and Engineering News Record

Historical Cost Indexes

Year (yearly average,
unless noted)
Historical
Cost Index
Jan. 1, 1993 = 100
Year (yearly average,
unless noted)
Historical
Cost Index
Jan. 1, 1993 = 100
Year (yearly average,
unless noted)
Historical
 Cost Index
Jan. 1, 1993 = 100
Jan. 2016 207.2 2009 180.1 2002 128.7
2015 206.2 2008 180.4 2001 125.1
2014 204.9 2007 169.4 2000 120.9
2013 201.2 2006 162.0 1999 117.6
2012 194.6 2005 151.6 1998 115.1
2011 191.2 2004 143.7 1997 112.8
2010 183.5 2003 132.0 1996 110.2

The numbers above represent the percent change in cost from one year to the next.  Base line is established as 100% in January 1993.
Source of Cost information: Engineering News Record